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A Marathon of Collective Effort

Of course, this spear-and-shield dynamic is also reflected in the unique industrial paradox of the PV industry: driven by top-level policies, the PV industry enjoys unprecedented development opportunities while also enduring the structural pains caused by overexpansion.

Domestically, as China strives to achieve its "3060" goals (peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060), the new energy sector is inevitably becoming a new growth area for China's economic development. Notably, the demand for PV will continue to rise and will remain the main force in renewable energy power generation.

Internationally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in its report Renewables 2024 that from 2024 to 2030, the global installed capacity of renewable energy will increase by over 5500GW—nearly triple the growth seen between 2017 and 2023.

According to industry forecasts, the iteration of manufacturing technology and global leadership in China's PV industry can basically meet climate goals. As the application scenarios expand, the current production capacity will be quickly digested and will continue to grow rapidly.

The iteration of manufacturing technology and global leadership in China's PV industry can basically meet climate goals and will continue to grow rapidly / Source: Visual China

This is consistent with Liu Hanyuan's view. In his opinion, the so-called PV overcapacity today isn't genuine surplus. The surplus crisis can be addressed as long as the government provides appropriate guidance, relevant policies are in place, and effective solutions are promoted, the market is left to the market as much as possible, and the pace of application is accelerated.

At this year's Two Sessions, Liu Hanyuan proposed to further accelerate the application of domestic PV power generation and expand the installed capacity, while also taking into account the development of other energy sources. If China's new renewable energy installed capacity is added, coupled with the construction of supporting energy storage and power grid transformation projects, the average annual investment intensity will reach RMB 10 trillion to RMB 20 trillion, which will effectively drive the domestic market, economic growth, and create employment.

With his technical background, Liu Hanyuan noted that the high-proportion access to the power grid objectively increases the difficulty of ensuring power supply due to the intermittent, fluctuating, and seasonal characteristics of renewable energy. In this regard, he suggests empowering new power systems with AI. strengthening cross-field cooperation and innovation, promoting the deep integration of AI technology with renewable energy, energy storage, electric vehicles, etc., and jointly promoting the construction and development of the new power system.

TW Solar Technology Yancheng Base

Liu Hanyuan's judgments and suggestions are all derived from his in-depth thinking and research on new energy. As early as 2005, when the haze problem had not yet been taken seriously, Liu Hanyuan's doctoral dissertation at Peking University, Comparative Study of Various New Energy Sources and China's Energy Strategy Selection, was already thinking about "what energy China should use to drive sustainable development?" After studying coal, oil, hydropower, wind power, nuclear energy, and other energy sources, Liu Hanyuan found that PV power generation, which is the "shortest path, largest reserves, inexhaustible and extremely low-cost future energy, is virtually the only choice." More than 20 years have passed, and Liu Hanyuan still believes that PV is the largest emerging industry we can see in our lifetime.

According to industry data, global cumulative PV capacity reached approximately 2,000 GW by the end of 2024, making PV the world's largest renewable energy source by installed capacity. Photovoltaic installations are projected to surpass coal-fired power generation capacity by late 2025, becoming the planet's dominant electricity source.

Liu Hanyuan stated that the future market scale and the ultimate installed capacity still have significant growth potential, with the market expected to expand tenfold, twentyfold, or even more. Meanwhile, China's PV sector holds an absolute advantage in cost and scale globally. Currently, China's PV industry accounts for over 85% of the global market share. Considering China's global position in the PV industry and its inherent development patterns, Liu Hanyuan firmly believes that after winter, spring will inevitably arrive. As long as core competitiveness is maintained, there is no need for excessive concern.

Tongwei Sihong "Integration of Fishery and PV" Base in Jiangsu Province

Reflecting on the two decades of development in China's PV industry, this industry has experienced numerous ups and downs, a journey marked by both grandeur and adversity. However, it has consistently overcome challenges, evolving from following and keeping pace to surpassing, demonstrating a strong momentum of "leading the way" and making significant contributions to society, the nation, and humanity.

In Liu Hanyuan's view, the development of the PV industry is just beginning. If likened to human growth, it is currently in its "adolescence," and the challenges faced are temporary. Every industry experiences fluctuations, with cycles of highs and lows. In this process, it is normal to have repeated development and experience prosperity and difficulties. After a period of market consolidation, a new equilibrium will be achieved. As he firmly expressed on CCTV's program Dialogue, "We remain full of confidence in the future (of PV)!"

Undoubtedly, the development of PV is a marathon. In March 2023, Liu Hanyuan handed over the leadership of Tongwei Co., Ltd. Although Liu Hanyuan knew that his daughter faced not only a market full of opportunities but also an industry with underlying currents. Regardless of the environment, Liu Hanyuan stated that he firmly prefers to entrust the specific work to the younger generation, providing them with room for growth. Importantly, this decision is not based on blind confidence. During our interview, Liu Hanyuan shared a story.

The "Yongxiang Method," created by Tongwei's Yongxiang Co., Ltd., has advanced to its eighth generation, achieving silicon purity surpassing 11N. This method satisfies the standards for P-type and N-type monocrystalline silicon materials, with some qualities approaching electronic-grade semiconductor silicon material standards.

What does that mean? The purity requirement for polysilicon in PV sector is 99.9999%. Therefore, further innovation is considered difficult by most. The purity standard for electronic-grade polysilicon reaches 99.999999999% (11N)—a specification demanding decades of relentless innovation and unprecedented technological evolution.

Silicon material inspection

However, last year, during an audit of Yongxiang's monthly innovation numbers, Liu Hanyuan surprisingly found that the company received over 10,000 innovation suggestions almost every month. This means that innovation and change are not just being considered and pursued by management or technical personnel within Tongwei. Almost all employees across all sectors and industries of Tongwei are exploring and improving with an optimization mindset, based on their respective positions. It is gratifying that this "micro-innovation" has formed a high degree of self-awareness in exploring and improving technological skills and management efficiency.

Tongwei encourages such behavior and matches it with a reward mechanism, where employees who propose suggestions can share up to 30% or even more of the results. Tongwei uses this mechanism to make everyone understand what principles and methods Tongwei will use to treat the market, customers, and employees.

With such a mechanism, whether it is Liu Hanyuan himself or his successors, what they need to do is uphold the entrepreneurial spirit, grasp important traction points, and effectively manage the organization.

With such a mechanism, regardless of any adjustments, changes, and improvements, as a whole and a large organization, it will always generate a continuous stream of vitality.

"No whipping needed—Tongwei runs forward on its own," Liu Hanyuan smiled.