Currently, TOPCon production capacity in the market has reached as high as 800GW. As a result, many are concerned about this severely homogenized technological route.

We believe such worries are unnecessary. It is precisely because this is a good technological route that so many companies have flocked to it. The homogenization of technological routes does not equate to the homogenization of products! This simple principle is evident in examples from various industries:

Like the mobile phone industry, the technological routes are all based on Android's open-source system, all using ARM architecture chips, OLED screens, and multi-camera modules, yet the resulting products are completely different;

Similarly, the technological routes of electric vehicle industry all involve power batteries and permanent magnet synchronous motors;

Even the lithium battery industry, which is most closely related to PV, is the same, all adopting the technological route of the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemical system, while product performance varies significantly across companies, with operational quality differing even more.

We found that, with the rapid iteration of TOPCon technology, TOPCon products are already rapidly differentiating in terms of quality. This may well be the path to breaking the homogeneity in the PV sector.

Tongwei's TOPCon products at a solar exhibition in the Netherlands

Against the backdrop of overcapacity in the PV sector and the full market entry and trading of new energy, we must move beyond simplistic notions like "TOPCon is more advanced," "BC leads," or "HJT holds more promise."

The superiority of a product should not be confined to a certain technological route but should focus on the core indicator of LCOE. LCOE, or Levelized Cost of Electricity, calculates the present value of a project's total lifecycle costs (including initial investment, operation, maintenance, and fuel costs) and averages them over each kilowatt-hour of electricity generated, serving as a key indicator of the economic competitiveness of different power generation technologies.

For the TOPCon cell technology route, rapid iteration is the norm — it is far from static. Today's TOPCon products are already distinct from yesterday's.

Dr. Xing Guoqiang, Chief Technology Officer of PV of Tongwei Co., Ltd., stated, "TOPCon technology continues to evolve rapidly. The question of whether a company has the willingness or the strength to upgrade its technology and keep pace with the TOPCon remains highly uncertain in the current market environment. If one cannot keep pace with this series of technological iterations, then one year later, the gap between advanced TOPCon and conventional production capacity will become significantly large, even reaching a difference of 20W-30W."

The competition in TOPCon technology resembles a marathon. When the thousands of contestants start from the starting line, it is difficult to distinguish who is superior, but when they reach the middle and enter the second half, the gap between different companies widen dramatically.

01 How to Break the Homogenization of TOPCon?

Since the end of last year and the beginning of this year, several leading companies have discussed TOPCon 2.0 and TOPCon 3.0 technologies. While terms like 2.0 and 3.0 vary, the consensus is clear: adopting new technologies will significantly enhance TOPCon cell conversion efficiency and module power output.

There is no clear definition of 2.0 and 3.0 in the market. Generally, companies define their products based on the superposition of their own processes and the improvement of module power.

For instance, Jinko Solar mentioned in its investor communication in March this year, "The company's third-generation products of TOPCon can increase power by 20-30W compared to the industry's un-upgraded products by introducing technologies such as half-cut passivation, MAX, and busbar-free technology."

Trina Solar also exhibited TOPCon 2.0 modules at this year's exhibition, with a conversion efficiency of 24.1% and a maximum power of 650W.

These all represent a leap in TOPCon cell technology.

Tongwei Co., Ltd., the company with the largest cell shipment volume, is at the forefront of the industry in terms of mass production efficiency.

Dr. Xing elaborated, "The power of our next-gen TOPCon products—182*210mm 66-type modules—will reach 635W-645W, while the power of those incorporating split-cell technology will achieve 650W or even 655W."

This represents a full 30W improvement over previous TOPCon products!

The key is that this is not laboratory data.

Tongwei's technology is mature and has been mass-produced on a small scale. Dr. Xing revealed, "The new generation of TOPCon modules may achieve large-scale mass production next month."

Of course, the improvement of cell efficiency and the significant leap in module power are brought by the application of new technologies. These include additional coating equipment, laser systems, and edge passivation devices, which also command premium pricing and greater market competitiveness.

However, not all companies may keep pace with TOPCon's progress this time. The real constraints lie in each TOPCon manufacturer's existing infrastructure.

(1) Whether the hardware allows for technology upgrades. This primarily assesses whether a company has the physical conditions for technological upgrades.

Dr. Xing illustrated, "Edge passivation equipment typically requires a new, dedicated facility. While it can also be added to the original workshop, other equipment basically needs to be added in the original workshop, too. If the original space layout is very compact, it will be difficult to upgrade the technology, or the technology upgrade will affect the current production capacity. The same problem exists on the module side, and many things need to be added to the mass production line."

Only forward-thinking enterprises can adapt to such technological transitions.

(2) Whether the software allows for technology upgrades. This mainly evaluates the comprehensive capabilities of the enterprise.

Currently, the entire PV supply chain operates at a loss, with prolonged unprofitability. In this case, identifying companies still willing and able to invest in technology research and development and to upgrade their technology involves significant uncertainty.

Dr. Xing offers a vivid analogy, "TOPCon's progress resembles a high-speed train. If the enterprise cannot keep up, perhaps after a year, the gap between the previous production capacity and the backward production capacity will become particularly large, perhaps a gap of 20W, or even 30W."

Regarding the two major factors that limit the technological upgrade of TOPCon production capacity, Xing Guoqiang believes that the current emphasis on technology research and development by enterprises plays a key role. Firms failing to adapt in this round of technology improvement will face diminishing survival prospects.

A simple truth is that the market currently has 800GW of TOPCon capacity, far exceeding demand. The most dynamic capacity is undoubtedly the most advanced.

The sector unanimously agrees that while TOPCon technology appears straightforward, achieving excellence and leadership is far from simple. As early as August 2023, an article by Gantanhao Media Technology — Why Did These Cross-Industry PV Players Fail on the 'Simple' TOPCon?—had already discerned the underlying rationale.

With clear advantages in efficiency and cost, TOPCon may break free from the so-called technological homogeneity dilemma.

The rapid iteration of TOPCon technology determines product leadership, corporate competitiveness, and industry positioning.